NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Terry Schell

RAND Corporation
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Santa Monica, CA 90401

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Institutional Affiliation: RAND Corporation

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2020Variation in Performance of Commonly Used Statistical Methods for Estimating Effectiveness of State-Level Opioid Policies on Opioid-Related Mortality
with Beth Ann Griffin, Megan S. Schuler, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Stephen Patrick, Elizabeth McNeer, Rosanna Smart, David Powell, Bradley Stein, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula: w27029
Over the last two decades, there has been a surge of opioid-related overdose deaths resulting in a myriad of state policy responses. Researchers have evaluated the effectiveness of such policies using a wide-range of statistical models, each of which requires multiple design choices that can influence the accuracy and precision of the estimated policy effects. This simulation study used real-world data to compare model performance across a range of important statistical constructs to better understand which methods are appropriate for measuring the impacts of state-level opioid policies on opioid-related mortality. Our findings show that many commonly-used methods have very low statistical power to detect a significant policy effect (< 10%) when the policy effect size is small yet impactfu...
 
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