Isabelle A. Roland
Department of Economics
Institutional Affiliation: Cambridge University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2020||The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data|
with , : w26686
This paper studies the implications of perceived default risk for aggregate output and productivity. Using a model of credit contracts with moral hazard, we show that a firm’s probability of default is a sufficient statistic for capital allocation. The theoretical framework suggests an aggregate measure of the impact of credit market frictions based on firm-level probabilities of default which can be applied using data on firm-level employment and default risk. We obtain direct estimates of firm-level default probabilities using Standard and Poor’s PD Model to capture the expectations that lenders were forming based on their historical information sets. We implement the method on the UK, an economy that was strongly exposed to the global financial crisis and where we can match default prob...