NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Andrey Zubarev

The Russian Presidential Academy
of National Economy
and Public Administration
82 Vernadskogo prosp
Moscow Russian Federation

E-Mail: Zubarev@ranepa.ru
Institutional Affiliation: The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Admini

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2016Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change?
with Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Andrey Polbin: w22731
The 2015 Paris Accord is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature. But it may be doing the opposite in gradually, rather than immediately reducing CO2 emissions. The Accord effectively tells dirty-energy producers to "use it or lose it." This may be accelerating their extraction and burning of fossil fuels and, thereby, be permanently raising temperatures. Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted Green Paradox. Its framework treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s – an externality that is, in part, irreversible and can tip the climate to permanently higher temperatures. In our model, delaying abatement can lead to larger changes in climate than doing nothing, reducing welfare for all generations. In contra...
June 2015Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions
with Seth G. Benzell, Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova: w21269
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.
 
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