Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Berkeley
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|March 2009||Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts|
with Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, An-Chi Tung, Mun-Sim Lai
in Developments in the Economics of Aging, David A. Wise, editor
|December 2006||Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts|
with Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, An-Chi Tung, Mun-Sim Lai: w12770
In all societies intergenerational transfers are large and have an important influence on inequality and growth. The development of each generation of youth depends on the resources that it receives from productive members of society for health, education, and sustenance. The well-being of the elderly depends on familial support and a variety of social programs. The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) system provides a comprehensive approach to measuring all reallocations of income across age and time at the aggregate level. It encompasses reallocations achieved through capital accumulation and transfers, distinguishing those mediated by public institutions from those relying on private institutions. This paper introduces the methodology and presents preliminary results emphasizing economic s...
Published: Ganser, Tim, 2009. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy. Edited by Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa and Andrew Mason. Edward Elgar, 2007, ISBN 978-1-84720-099-0, 320 pages," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 529-530, October.
|December 2004||Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090|
with Antoine Bommier, Ronald Lee, Stephane Zuber: w10969
Public transfer programs in industrial nations have massive long term fiscal imbalances, and apparently permit the elderly to benefit through pension and health care programs at the cost of the young and future generations. However, the intergenerational picture is turned upside down when public education is included in generational accounts along with pensions and health care. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090, and find that all generations born from 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many of today's old people are net losers. Windfall gains for early generations when Social Security and Medicare started up partially offset windfall losses when public education was started, roughtly consistent with the Beck...
Published: Antoine Bommier & Ronald Lee & Tim Miller & Stéphane Zuber, 2010.
"Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090,"
Population and Development Review,
The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 1-26.
citation courtesy of
|November 2004||Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies|
with Ronald Lee, Michael Anderson: w10917
This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then slowly rises to 1.2 million at the end of the century, with 95% probability bounds of 800,000 to 1.8 million at the century's end. Adding stochastic immigration makes little difference to the probability distribution of the old age dependency ratio. 2) We incorporate parameter uncertainty, stochastic trends, and uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the probability distributions of the individual input forecasts, but ...